How to set national baselines for REDD?

[Mika Huettner]

Hey friends,
I have finished my MSc a while ago. My thesis “Simply REDD? - A comparison of baseline methods for the `Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation` as climate protection mechanism in a post-2012 regime" can be sent by me on request.

Here is the abstract:

The reduction of emissions from deforestation could not only reduce the largest current source of greenhouse gases in developing countries, but also pave the way for an effective integration of Non-Annex-I countries in the Post-Kyoto regime. Reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) could provide an attractive economic alternative to deforestation through the generation of carbon credits. Thus, it also has the potential to constitute a powerful biodiversity conservation and development financing tool.
To know how much deforestation emissions are truly prevented under a REDD mechanism, one needs to know how much deforestation would have occurred in the `Business-as-usual` (BAU) scenario projected in a baseline. This is essential to focus incentive provisions for forest protection on areas under threat of deforestation and to avoid carbon credit market flooding.
Up to now there is no political and scientific agreement on the choice of baseline approach. Competing methods such as historical extrapolation of deforestation trends and prospective dynamic land use models are currently used to calculate baselines on the local and regional level. However, there has never been an integrative approach to compare their applicability at the national level. Therefore, the main goal of my thesis was to evaluate options for the establishment of national deforestation baselines for Non-Annex-I countries by comparing different REDD baseline methods for their environmental, political, economic and technical applicability. I divided the historical baseline methods according to currently proposed options derived from policy analysis. I used a so-called Simple Historical Approach (SiHA), which extrapolates forest area change trends based on FAO data. Furthermore, I used a Spatial Historical Approach (SpHA), which extrapolates the deforestation trend through satellite image comparison. Thirdly, a Joint Research Centre Approach (JRCA) was investigated, which functions similar to the SpHA, but uses the global deforestation rate for countries with low historical rates. As prospective modelling baselines, I used the dynamic, spatially explicit land-use model CLUE-S. To find out, which method provided the best applicability for a post-2012 climate regime, I established environmental, political, economic and technical performance criteria and indicators for them. First, a qualitative evaluation of literature case studies was conducted to summarize the general functioning and performance of the different methods. Based on case study data, simple extrapolation and simulation calculations were performed for each method to rate the indicator applicability. Furthermore, to determine the political relevance of indicators a survey was sent to policy makers and experts to rate the indicator importance. The results of the indicator performance and importance comparison were incorporated in a multi-criteria analysis to weight the indicator applicability of each baseline method.
The results of the qualitative and quantitative indicator evaluation show that none of the baseline methods has a clear superiority for all criteria. The CLUE-S and JRCA perform best in the weighted multi-criteria analysis. Nevertheless, no single baseline method is explicitly recommended for global applicability, since political preferences, data and human capacities differ among countries. The adoption of a multi-tier approach for the baseline method choice, similar to the three-tiered reporting options under the IPCC Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry is recommended. It would allow countries to choose the baseline method suiting their specific capacity and data. It is further recommended to establish an international, independent expert body under the UNFCCC to check and review all national baseline submissions. This will allow the choice of individual baseline methods, while ensuring their scientific and political transparency.

[Dian]

Hey Mika,

Wow you did a great work! would you mind to share it with me?. I am dian who also interested and curious so much on the REDD thing. you may send here: [e-mail]. G'Day and many thanx

[Amila]

Hi Mika,

I believe your research is quite amazing....if you'd be willing to share it with me it would be excellent as curently this is a topic I'm very interested in.
Thanx in advance :)

Regards,
Amila

[Steph]

Hey Miiiika!
I would like to read your theses too!
lots of greetings from Pute and me.

Steph

[Mika Huettner]

Ok, guys,
here is the link for everyone interested:
http://www.bgc-jena.mpg.de/~mhuettner/MSc_Thesis_mhuettner_SimplyRE...
Comments ...also critical ones....are very welcome.
Cheers.
Mika

[Rane Cortez]

Hi Mika,

Can you please share this with me?

Thanks,
Rane Cortez
[e-mail]